One constituency many observers will be focusing on will be North Antrim, where for the first time in more than 40 years Ian Paisley will not be standing. His son Ian Paisley Jnr has been given the task of defending the seat for the DUP against the challenge of ex-DUP MEP and leader of TUV Jim Allister.
At the European elections, Allister secured an impressive 66,000 votes – halving the DUP’s vote. He polled particularly well in North Antrim where the DUP have lost support and councillors after forming the Assembly Executive with Sinn Fein. It will be a tight contest. Paisley is currently tipped to take the seat, but the Paisley “brand” has been severely damaged and it cannot be ruled out that Allister could produce a shock by taking the seat.
This would open up a major crisis for the DUP, already troubled with deep divisions run throughout the party, including in the leadership. MPs such as Nigel Dodds, Gregory Campbell and Wille McCrea represent a significant and more hardline section of the DUP. A victory for the TUV in North Antrim would strengthen this wing of the DUP, further damaging scandalised leader Peter Robinson and threatening the power-sharing institutions at Stormont.
The Ulster Unionist Party is stumbling into these elections in a state of crisis. After losing their sole MP, Sylvia Hermon, and North Down MLA, Alan McFarland, in opposition to the party’s pact with the Conservatives, this election could spell the end of Reg Empey’s leadership if no clear progress is seen to be made. In Protestant working class areas, there is no support for the Tories.
Despite the damaging sexual abuse scandal surrounding Gerry Adams’ brother Liam and the manner in which Sinn Fein and Adams failed to remove Liam Adams from positions in the party after allegations of sexual abuse were first raised, it is not likely Sinn Fein will be greatly damaged electorally. The SDLP, under new leader Margaret Ritchie, will be under pressure to defend their three Westminster seats. A further reduction in SDLP MPs would consolidate the downward trajectory of the SDLP.
For the working class, there are no differences between the parties as far as economic policy goes. All the parties in the Executive are working in harmony in carrying out cuts and privatising services. The biggest issue for the working class is the absence of a mass independent political voice. In Derry, workers have a partial alternative where Eamonn McCann is standing for People Before Profit Alliance, unfortunately abandoning socialist policies in the process.
The Socialist Party has chosen not to contest this general election but instead to build to fight next year’s local and Assembly elections which are more favourable for smaller parties. The cuts being implemented by the Assembly Executive are becoming more visible and tangible. Up to recently cuts have been introduced, but have appeared to be happening in the background through not replacing staff etc.
Over the next year, cuts will lead to more closures of health services, schools, community facilities etc. which will be met with opposition from workers. It is crucial that a working class electoral alternative, based on real social forces and campaigns, is built before next year’s elections which can challenge the right-wing policies of the sectarian parties. The trade unions should break their unofficial partnership with the Assembly parties and support the creation of a new mass party for workers. The Socialist Party believes such a party should put forward a clear socialist alternative to the capitalist policies of the Assembly which can give workers a necessary political voice.
Labour elects Ed Miliband as new leader
The decision by the Western Health Trust to cut nursing home places “is a direct attack on the elderly and the vulnerable” according to Domhnall O’Cobhthaigh, Fermanagh Socialist Party representative.
The following is a quote from an article in The Sunday Business Post (February 14, 2010): "Dublin based Glas Securities said that any decision by an Irish bank to default on subordinated debt would, depending on the documentation and specific characteristics of individual bonds, result in breaches of so called ‘cross default’ provisions attached to the bank’s senior unsecured paper. ‘This would be quite clearly a ‘no-go area’ for Irish banks’", according to Jim Ryan, Managing Director of Glas.
As we go to press, the outcome of the general election is very difficult to predict. The Tories are ahead in the polls but their lead is slipping and a clear Tory majority looks increasingly uncertain. The Tories need to climb an electoral mountain to win enough seats to form a majority government. At the present time, opinion polls suggest they may do it but the memory of the Thatcher years has not faded for millions of voters, especially working class voters. Now that the Tories have taken off the mask and appear as they truly are, the outcome of the election is much more uncertain. A certain swing back to Labour, especially amongst working class voters, is clearly discernible.